[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
STRUCTURE REMAINS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND IS IN AN AREA
OF SOMEWHAT DRY AIR. THUS...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 12N53W 10N62W ACROSS
THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE AXIS E OF 32W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERING THE W
GULF AND EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL P0LAIN STATES. THE LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE NW ATLC IS GIVING THE E GULF NW FLOW
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE GULF AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N87W
BECOMING DIFFUSED TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF FROM
24N-26N E OF 87W WHILE THE REMAINING HAS RATHER CLEAR SKIES WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINING FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 13N78W
EXTENDING NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 65W WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N85W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR
18N89W. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA W OF 76W AN ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-20N W OF 81W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC S OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W COVERING
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 33N76W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING
SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 60W-71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 25N W OF 75W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUES NE TO 29N63W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 23N57W S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER CUTTING THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH THE AXIS ALONG 46W AND COVERING THE AREA
FROM 35W-55W. UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W S TO NEAR 16N31W THUS COVERING THE E
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF
65W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N48W.

$$
WALLACE




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