[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 19W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
EVIDENT 0N SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
60W-70W...MOSTLY DUE TO THE ITCZ.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  AGAIN SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
74W-77W...MOSTLY DUE TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 14N54W 12N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
17W-28W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 28W-44W...
AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 47W-53W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO E TEXAS ALONG 25N80W
24N85W 24N90W 28N97W.  THE FRONT IS DRIFTING S OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  10-15
KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT E OF 90W...WHILE 10-15 KT E WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 22N96W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 17N-32N BETWEEN 86W-106W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS N OF THE LINE 20N105W 29N94W.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE THE GULF HAS UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO GO QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 30N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ARE NOT
PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION N OF 10N.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N83W 20N88W.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N
BETWEEN 80W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 8N-22N BETWEEN 66W-84W.  EXPECT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
PRESENTLY E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PRODUCE INCREASED
CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  ALSO
EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N75W 28N75W
25N80W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N61W 22N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 66W-72W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
68W-73W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N47W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 25N W OF 70W.  A NARROW RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N57W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 15N45W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA




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