[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 47W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 59W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE STRUCTURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR. THUS...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N34W 12N50W 10N62W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGES ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC AND A SECOND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE W GULF DRY
AIR WHILE THE SE GULF IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE N GULF
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG TO 25N88W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON AND
CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N87W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W WHILE THE W GULF HAS
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NE GULF IS ENJOYING RATHER CLEAR
SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
PANAMA/NW COLOMBIA EXTENDING NW OVER W CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W ACROSS THE TIP
OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE NE YUCATAN NEAR 20N88W. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA W OF 76W AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 10N-17N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N79W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W SE ALONG 30N77W THE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 63W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 22N55W SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC OVER CUTTING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 48W AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W-60W. NARROW INDUCED
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING W
AFRICA EXTENDING INTO THE FAR E ATLC E OF 22W. THIS IS COMBINED
TO KEEP MOST OF THE ATLC DRY AND SHOWER FREE. A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS FROM 50 TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM 22N50W SE ALONG 12N31W THE
NNE INTO NW AFRICA NEAR 26N13W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

$$
WALLACE





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