[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED FROM 41W
AT 08/0345 UTC TO 46W AT 08/1015 UTC BASED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INTERPRETATION. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N
TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 16W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARD A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

AN EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CUT ACROSS
THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 21N FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE PASSING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION THAT
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
11N16W 10N30W 10N43W 8N48W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 67W...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA/
GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 34N82W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO SOUTH FLORIDA EAST AND TO CUBA
NEAR 80W. DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM NORTH OF 32N67W 24N77W
25N87W 31N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA EAST TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...AND NOW ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N73W...ABOUT 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N74W
26N68W TO 33N59W. A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH 32N77W TO 29N79W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND JUST NORTH OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...FROM A WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W...
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS IS THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES
MAY FORM CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 70W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N64W
TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE AREA OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH...EAST OF 70W
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF VENEZUELA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 67W. DRY AIR IS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 63W IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS RIDGE.
A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N50W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 61W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N58W EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS 18N50W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
FROM THE AREA OF THE ITCZ NEAR 10N60W NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH
20N30W...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO A RIDGE IN CENTRAL MOROCCO. MORE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 60W.

$$
MT




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