[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N69W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 28N69W 26N70W AND THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 22N73W 25N67W BEYOND 32N64W. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY IF NECESSARY.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 25N96W TO 22N96W TO LAND
NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
90W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
26N96W 23N92W 21N90W. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE MOVEMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 32W  AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W
SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION...
WITHIN 60 TO 70 NM WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF 9N52W 9N56W 11N58W
14N60W.

A WEAK EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF
23N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...FROM MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 9N24W 9N36W 8N41W 10N51W 11N55W 10N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N24W 7N33W 8N40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
8N13W 5N24W...FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND WITHIN
60 TO 70 NM WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF 9N52W 9N56W 11N58W 14N60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO 18N93W. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF
25N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUES WSW ALONG 29N90W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 28N97W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TOMORROW AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. NE TO E WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. DRY MID/UPPER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED S INTO THE NRN
GULF WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS SOUTH OF 25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN
VENEZUELA. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE REGIONS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WILL
BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LIES ACROSS CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH
IS LOCATED NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND
32N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS RELATED TO THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG
27N33W 20N50W 22N60W WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERS.
THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 32N46W.

$$
MT






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