[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR
31N70W OR ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF
NECESSARY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-31N
BETWEEN 64W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 24W-32W...MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
50W-52W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
VENEZUELA. IT AXIS LIES ALONG 63W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE NEAR
14N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE SOUTH END OF THE
WAVE OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WELL
DEFINED INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
11N-20N WEST OF 80W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE AS WELL AS PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N28W 8N40W 9N49W 10N61W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
37W-49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100NM OF THE
AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND
OVER SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO 18N93W. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF
25N. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUES WSW ALONG 29N90W TO
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS TOMORROW AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. NE TO E WINDS OF 10-20
KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. DRY MID/UPPER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED S INTO THE NRN
GULF WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS SOUTH OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN
VENEZUELA. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE REGIONS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WILL
BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W
ATLC JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LIES ACROSS CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND
32N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS RELATED TO THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG
27N33W 20N50W 22N60W WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERS.
THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 32N46W.

$$
GR






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