[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAINLY
AHEAD OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-50W...PARTICULARLY BEHIND THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK
INVERTED V PATTERN IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SHAPE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...JAMAICA AND CENTRAL
CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N30W 11N45W 10N55W 9N61W.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 17W-30W AND FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-16N.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER NORTHERN GUYANA AND NE
VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND NE MEXICO TO
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 22N100W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES IS HELPING TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THIS REGION
ALONG 18N93W 25N96W. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF
COAST... INCLUDING ALSO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION IS SPREADING
THE HIGH CLOUDS EWD TO 85W...WITH DRY MID TO UPPER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NE AND FAR ERN GULF. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED OVER THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER IS KEEPING THE SE U.S.
RATHER SHOWER FREE INCLUDING THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD RIDGE
COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SWLY WIND
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE FLARED UP
OVER HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA THANKS TO THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ATLANTIC
RIDGE NEAR 30N WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE ELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS
ALONG A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COVERS FROM 21N-30N
BETWEEN 66W-71W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS MODEL...A NON-TROPICAL LOW COULD FORM WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. AN UPPER HIGH
IS JUST E OF THIS TROUGH NEAR 29N60W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOUND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COVERING FROM
65W-75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N31W THEN
CONTINUES SW ALONG 23N37W 18N51W WHERE THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW. DRY UPPER AIR RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS FROM 15N-29N BETWEEN 40W-60W...THUS VERY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH... PROBABLY REFLECTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 30W/31W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR



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