[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 17W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH A SURGE PRECEDING THE WAVE TO THE W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 11W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON THE
WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL ROTATION SEEN ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE
BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS LIMITING SHOWERS/
CONVECTION TO WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A SMALL THUNDERSTORM NEAR
20N42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF DRY AIR DEVELOPING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 4N28W 12N41W 10N48W 8N61W
ACROSS THE SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N
BETWEEN 22W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE E TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST INTO
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE GULF W OF 95W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR ALABAMA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS COMBINATION CONTINUES TO
ADVECT AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GIVING
THE GULF S OF 26N SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER SHOWER FREE. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO COVER THE N GULF WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 25N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SSE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA TO 13N75W WEDGED BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 65W. THIS IS
GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 66W WHERE
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 32N79W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
20N76W W OF 73W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS JUST TO THE E ALONG 30N68W S TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR
22N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W
OF 73W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ALONG 23N65W TO BEYOND 32N64W. THIS IS GIVING THE
AREA LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 33N BETWEEN 64W-73W. A SECOND INDUCED UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N33W SW TO 17N43W. THE AREA
FROM 14N-30N BETWEEN 40W-62W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 32W-35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE TROPICS NEAR 13N28W N TO BEYOND 32N21W PUMPING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N AND GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE 16N34W TO BEYOND 32N27W.

$$
WALLACE




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