[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N35W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE 7N37W-19N33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS ON
THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ARE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N20W 12N45W 11N62W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 10W-12W WITH CLUSTERS FROM THE AXIS TO 12N E OF 17W TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS REMOVED
FROM THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N FROM 27W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS N OVER
THE GULF INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF.
THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI AND E CUBA N OF 15N FROM 70W-80W
GIVING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 71W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 16N67W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
SW TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
ALONG 62W AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
59W-68W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N E OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 14N E OF 80W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM 69W-80W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N62W SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-28N
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 74W. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE
E NEAR 28N61W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 55W-68W ENHANCING
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 31N31W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N FROM
22W-55W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 29N31W AND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S
FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 34N23W S ALONG 27N25W TO 22N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N FROM
23W-34W. THE AFRICAN DUST HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
APPEARS TO BE BLOCKED ITS WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT BY THE THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH ABOVE.

$$
WALLACE



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