[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N34W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
31W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N25W 9N43W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 35W-40W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N FROM
27W-31W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 15N FROM 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS N OVER
THE GULF INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF.
THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH SITUATED OVER WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA N OF 16N FROM 73W-80W GIVING THE
AREA N OF 16N W OF 72W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 16N68W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
SW TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
ALONG 60W AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
61W-66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM 69W-80W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N63W SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 25N
AND S OF 22N. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE E NEAR 27N62W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 55W-68W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER A MAJOR PORTION OF THE ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 29N30W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N FROM
20W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 30N31W WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTEND NE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTEND S FROM A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 34N24W S TO 28N26W AND TUNING STATIONARY TO
22N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N
FROM 26W-36W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A THIN
LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA INCLUDING
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BEING BLOCKED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
ABOVE.

$$
WALLACE




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