[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 022034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006
500 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISSAC HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY
AS THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  AROUND 1600 UTC... THE CENTER
MOVED BY CANADIAN BUOY 44138...WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 56 KT.  ISAAC'S CENTER RECENTLY PASSED JUST
OFFSHORE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT WERE
REPORTED.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/35.  ISAAC IS BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO SOON MERGE WITH THE LARGER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM TO ITS WEST.  THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT THE SMALL ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM ALONG AN EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 12-24 HOURS.
IN DEFERENCE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

SINCE IT IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 47.1N  52.2W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 51.5N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 53.5N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH



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