[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ISAAC IS CENTERED NEAR 40.5N 58.2W AT 02/0900 UTC
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISAAC
IS MOVING RAPIDLY NOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED FROM
THE MID LEVEL CENTER. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
40N-45N BETWEEN 53W-59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N32W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WEAK WAVE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N28W 8N37W 10N48W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N66W ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 8N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N8N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 1.5N
FROM 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W EXTENDS N
OVER THE W GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COVERING THE GULF W OF 86W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF E US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF AND DIPPING
S INTO THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY ISOLATED...LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SURROUNDING THE S FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH SITUATED OVER S LOUISIANA GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND W ATLC DIPS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA N OF 16N FROM 74W-86W GIVING THE
AREA FROM 16N-21N W OF 74W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
E CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N71W WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO 13N77W. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THAT
AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N66W
SW ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
TO THE E NEAR 27N61W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 57W-68W
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 17N51W DRIFTING WESTWARD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR 27N33W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N E OF 50W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N24W EXTENDING SW TO 24N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N FROM 20W-35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NNE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N13W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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