[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020449
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ISAAC IS CENTERED NEAR 38.6N 58.8W AT 02/0300 UTC
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISAAC
HAS LOST ITS DISTINCT EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST HOURS AND IS
MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CAUSE
ISAAC TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-41N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N31W MOVING
W 15-20 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 25W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 12.5N FROM 40W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
66W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WEAK WAVE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY N OF 17N ARE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N23W 8N35W 10N46W 10N62W
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 8N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 10W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W EXTENDS N
OVER THE W GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE GULF
W OF 87W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF E US INTO THE
W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF AND DIPPING AS FAR S AS THE CARIBBEAN
LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF
WITH A 1020 MB HIGH SITUATED OVER S LOUISIANA GIVING THE ENTIRE
GULF FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA FROM 16N-21N W OF 75W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
15N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW
TO 14N74W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THAT AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 71W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N68W
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
TO THE E NEAR 27N61W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 54W-70W
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN
61W-70W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
18N50W DRIFTING WESTWARD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY
AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE N AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR
28N33W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING SW TO
25N37W AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N30W TO 20N38W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N FROM 23W-36W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W WITH A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N14W. THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST
PUSHING OFF THE COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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