[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 35.1N 60.4W
MOVING NORTH 11 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 270 NM/500 KM
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT 770 NM/1425 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM/40 KM FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 NM/
240 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
21N35W. A TROUGH TRAILS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 20N35W AND
18N37W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N30W
TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N33W TO 26N37W TO 23N40W.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THIS TROUGH IS ABOUT 300 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER/TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N68W.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
68W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...AND FROM
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W MOVING WEST
15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEST-MOVING 17N68W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST...AND
A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
CURRENTLY RUNS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO WESTERN
NICARAGUA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 79W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BEING AIDED IN DEVELOPMENT BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 10N26W 11N40W 10N44W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND
34W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS TO THE WEST OF IT...NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF 32N72W 26N76W 23N81W 24N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO 24N98W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BEYOND 32N100W IN CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 100W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN INTERIOR
MEXICO NEAR 26N106W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N68W. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W MOVING WEST
15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEST-MOVING 17N68W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST...AND
A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
CURRENTLY RUNS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO WESTERN
NICARAGUA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 79W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEING AIDED IN
DEVELOPMENT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 17N68W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH THIS TROUGH IS WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF 32N72W 26N76W 23N81W 24N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
NOW PASSES THROUGH 33N70W TO 27N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
30N70W TO 26N73W TO 21N74W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N68W 28N72W
20N75W. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 30N58W...WITH A TROUGH REACHING 28N59W FROM IT. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA 17N68W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
20N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING
ITSELF INTO THE AREA OCCUPIED BY THE FLOW AROUND THIS 20N50W
CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS COMPLETELY THE
20N50W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N35W. A TROUGH TRAILS FROM THIS LOW
CENTER TO 20N35W AND 18N37W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 36N30W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N33W TO
26N37W TO 23N40W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THIS TROUGH IS ABOUT
300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 32W
AND 34W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MT



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