[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1S50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN
GULF. NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS NEAR 31N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL ALONG 24N80W 21N86W 16N93W. THE
FRONT IS BROKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND
UP THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. A WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COVER MOST THE GULF NORTH OF
25N. LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED
UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER SE UNITED STATES.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER VENEZUELA AT UPPER LEVELS
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA...THEN CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLC. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND BREAKING UP AS IT
TRAVELS EASTWARD STAYING MOSTLY S OF 15N. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TO JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...THAT HAS REACHED HAVANA CUBA LATE THIS MORNING. PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF
PANAMA...ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ALSO...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS.
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN
FROM 12N-23N AND EAST OF 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 964 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N42W AND ENTERS THE AREA
ALONG 31N35W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 24N54W. A LINE OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS WESTERN AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...A
1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER MOROCCO AFRICA NEAR 33N8W. SURFACE
RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 19N50W.

$$
GR


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