[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 2N0 EQ3W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS S OF 6N BETWEEN 27W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE S
AMERICAN COAST FROM GUYANA TO THE AMAZON DELTA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TRAPPED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE E COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A POTENT SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 300 MB WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 100 KT IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE FROM
N/CENTRAL MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MOIST SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA S OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS PUSHING INLAND FROM E TEXAS ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA TO
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG ARE
DEVELOPING PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE N GULF
COAST REGION INDICATES THAT MOST WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED WELL N INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT A
STRONG SQUALL LINE IS DEVELOPING FROM DALLAS TO PIEDRAS NEGRAS
MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY PUSH TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE
EARL MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED
PATCHES OF FOG OVER FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT E/SE TOWARDS FLORIDA
AND THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO E/CENTRAL MEXICO WED.

CARIBBEAN...
ZONAL WESTERLIES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND SRN VENEZUELA. A FEW TRADE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WWD UP TO 360 NM AS WELL AS
ON THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA...MAINLY THE REMNANTS OF OROGRAPHIC
SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. HAZY
CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE
TO AFRICAN DUST...WITH VISIBILITY REPORTED AS LOW AS 3 NM IN
BARBADOS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS SPIRALING NWD NEAR THE SE TIP OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO SPREAD UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES SWD TO THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. A WEAK
AND ALMOST WEATHER-FREE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 26N70W. BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LIE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 600 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 32N44W
TO 22N55W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE BOUNDARY N OF
27N. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 13N40W
32N35W WITH A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N35W. A LARGE COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
JUST W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDES...AND A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 32N10W TO 25N20W. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS LIE OVER W AFRICA FROM
THE COAST OF MAURITANIA TO SW ALGERIA. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLC WATERS S OF 16N WWD TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO
SUSPENDED DUST FROM W AFRICA. LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITIES ARE
AROUND 3 NM IN BARBADOS.

$$
BERG




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