[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 5N30W 2N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER TEXAS ALONG 32N94W 27N100W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT MOVING SE TOWARD THE COAST.  WARM 15-20 KT SLY
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N62W.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  A
90-100 KT JETSTREAM WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO TO CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG 27N110W 32N98W.   EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT  TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
PREDOMINATELY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W...AND ALONG THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN PANAMA AND HONDURAS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS HEAVIEST OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N62W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 27N36W 26N47W.  A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W 26N34W 22N40W WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.   AFRICAN DUST PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.  A STRONGER OUTBURST OF DUST WITH LOW
SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE FROM 5N-20N E OF 32W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N66W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 7N35W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA


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