[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W JUST N
OF THE EQUATOR ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 51W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NORTH TO 4N BETWEEN 43W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED S OF THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST W
OF 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 1N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FLATTENING OUT
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SE U.S. AND ALONG THE GULF COAST IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
COVERS THE ALL BUT THE EXTREME N GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS
CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA W OF 92W WITH ONLY
A FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THE MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME W TO NWLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N/26N. BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SOUTHERN EXTEND OF TROUGH OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
MONA PASSAGES WSW ALONG 17N72W TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER. THE TROUGH DIVIDES THE MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. NW OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THE MID/UPPER
FLOW IS NW-NLY AROUND THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SE
OF THE TROUGH...A MODERATE SWLY FLOW IS SEEN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND A RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SEEN WEST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...
JAMAICA AND MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS ALSO COVERED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. WEAK FRONT OVER
THE ATLC MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO HISPANIOLA.  A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY ALSO PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE
NELY FLOW IS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 25 KT ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
NELY FLOW IS HELPING TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. E OF 70W THE ELY
FLOW IS A LITTLE LIGHTER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC N
OF 20N W OF 50W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA W OF 55W. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 31N53W 25N60W TO NEAR THE
NW COAST OF HAITI. EAST OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG
25N55W TO THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC. SCATTERED/BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 24N.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE W ATLC.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 12N57W 20N50W TO 30N39W.  WELL-DEFINE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 NM N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 23N23W.  TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
15N30W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N21W.
THIS HIGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST WEAKEN WHILE THE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.

$$
BROWN


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