[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 1N46W S OF THE
EQUATOR INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE GULF S OF 28N
WITH NO MEASURABLE SHOWERS PRESENT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD S FROM THE US OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY CLIP THE NE GULF LATE IN THE DAY ON MON INTO TUE. LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...THUS THIS FRONT MAY ONLY GENERATE
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
SUBSEQUENT BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E TO SE
UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO
HISPANIOLA IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA...THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND EFFECT THE
N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MON.
THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT TO EFFECT THE AREA WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID
WEEK...AND THEN ONLY THE N PORTION. EVEN DRIER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN
53W-73W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N51W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N63W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N55W TO BEYOND 32N50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT LEAVING COLD AIR
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W.
BROAD...FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM
40W-53W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA
S OF 25N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS WSW THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
22N25W TO 18N30W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
N OF 14N E OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 32N30W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXISTS WITHIN 350/400
NM OF LINE FROM 6N37W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 22N16W.

$$
WALLACE



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