[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N18W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 29N94W
TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO FROM 21N88W TO 16N92W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE GULF S OF 28N
WITH NOW MEASURABLE SHOWERS PRESENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING
TO BUILD S FROM THE US OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY CLIP THE NE GULF LATE IN THE DAY ON MON. LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT...THUS THIS FRONT MAY ONLY GENERATE WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH  OFF THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
SUBSEQUENT BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E TO SE
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO
HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA E OF 72W
TO THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. SMALL AREA
OF STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E
PANAMA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E AND EFFECT THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY MON. THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT TO EFFECT THE AREA
WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID WEEK...AND THEN ONLY THE N PORTION. EVEN
DRIER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF
56W TO THE US E COAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N70W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 175 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N60W TO BEYOND 32N53W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT LEAVING COLD AIR
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N64W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FORM THE SHOWERS IN
THE FAR N CARIBBEAN. BROAD...FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W-56W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 26N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS WSW THROUGH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N25W TO 19N33W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WITH A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N29W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
EXISTS WITHIN 400 NM OF LINE FROM 10N40W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
22N17W.

$$
WALLACE


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