[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W EQ28W THEN SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
W OF 25W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 95W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. AS OF 1800 UTC
A TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 28N96W 27N97 WHILE
THE WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF HAS DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM
22N88W TO 16N92W.  A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IN U.S. WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NW SECTOR OF THE
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF GUYANA NEAR 9N54W GIVING THE
AREA MAINLY WSWLY FLOW. A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM
JAMAICA NE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA.  MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 25N65W
19N70W IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER HISPANIOLA. ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT COVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLC AND SE BAHAMAS MOVES INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W N OF 23N. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N57W 26N65W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREAD ABOUT 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SOUTH
OF 25N...ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE FRONT. COLD AIR SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N65W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ABOUT 100 NM
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N. A BROAD FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 30W-60W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS S
OF 25N. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N32W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA E OF 30W N OF 20N. AN EMBEDDED CUT
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
26N24W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER OR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OR CUT-OFF LOW.
MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO EXISTS IN THE EAST ATLANTIC N
OF THE ITCZ S OF 20N.

$$
GR


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