[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N20W EQ30W 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND
70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER NE
BRAZIL. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW EXTENDS
ALONG 29N83W 25N88W 19N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W-90W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND IS PRODUCING BROAD SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE N GULF
COAST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
DOMINATES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN GIVING SWLY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO
THE ENTIRE BASIN. A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM HONDURAS
NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE REACHING THE NE CORNER OF NICARAGUA NEAR CABO
GRACIAS A ADIOS AND THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC AREA WITH A
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. A BROAD TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO 8N25W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NE VENEZUELA AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FARTHER NE OF THAT
NEAR 17N35W OVER THE OPEN ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM 9N-23N E OF 55W INTO W AFRICA. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W THEN EXTENDS WWD
TO THE NRN BAHAMAS/S FLORIDA. MAINLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AREA SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NORTH OF THE RIDGE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

$$
GR



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