[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N19W 1N30W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 40W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES PUSHING SE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING 32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 23N94W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE CLIPS THE SE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF E OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 26N88W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE N GULF LATE THU
INTO FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF
25N GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN FOR
MOST THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N83W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC FINALLY RETREATS
EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E US COAST ACROSS TO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N W OF 35W WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER...RE-ENFORCING TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 33N70W ALONG
32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W
SW TO 26N47W COMING UP STATIONARY TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
18N69W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 80W. WEAK HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 26N70W.
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 4N45W N
ALONG 20N49W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N31W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025
MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N34W. A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE FAR E ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST INLAND OVER MOROCCO
EXTENDING SW ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 14N20W. THE ASSOCIATED
1004 MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 29N12W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...THUS CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE
INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net