[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 12N56W 6N56W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N55W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
CUTTING ACROSS THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N58W 11N68W.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY...EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE DUE MORE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AND NOT THE WAVE AS MUCH. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE 26N74W LOW
CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THE WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
THE FEW NEARBY SHOWERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W
AND 95W...AND FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE LAND JUST WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N95W
13N93W 12N89W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N19W 9N29W 12N45W 12N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM
7N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND
21W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS
INLAND NEAR 25N102W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. A SECOND LOW CENTER
NOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 27N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND
97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS CURVING TOWARD THE CENTER
FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SOUTH OF 22N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
250 NM TO 300 NM NORTH OF 31N71W 24N80W 30N91W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N74W
LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
THE JAMAICA CHANNEL FROM HAITI TO CUBA TO JAMAICA. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N67W TO
BERMUDA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW PRETTY
MUCH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...
BUT REALLY ONLY IN THE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS. ITCZ SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
IT GOES FROM A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO
26N43W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N54W TO THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$
MT


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