[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 12N55W 6N56W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE EARLIER LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THIS
WAVE HAS DISSIPATED. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 15N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
6N53W 9N52W 11N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N52W
12N54W 11N57W 11N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE 27N74W LOW CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THE
WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE FEW NEARBY SHOWERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL
WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT AT THE COAST FROM NORTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...TO 100W JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST.
ONE PRECIPITATION CELL IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISTHMUS...
ANOTHER CELL IS JUST NORTHWEST OF GUATEMALA...AND WEST OF THE
AND SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N17W 7N25W 11N40W 13N53W 11N57W 11N66W. THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TEMPERATURES EXISTS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
22W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N EAST OF 40W TO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS
INLAND NEAR 25N101W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. A SECOND LOW CENTER
NOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS CURVING TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS LOW CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 22N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 300 NM NORTH OF
33N68W 26N77W 27N86W 30N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N74W LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS
AND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE TROUGH/
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL
FROM HAITI TO CUBA TO JAMAICA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
EXIST NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N66W TO
32N66W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW PRETTY
MUCH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EAST OF 67W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CELLS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WESTERN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W
AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
35N42W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 27N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND NORTHWARD.
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IT GOES FROM
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO 28N40W TO 26N56W
TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.

$$
MT


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