[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 16N. A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N53W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
52W-58W.  CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST AROUND 20
KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 72W-83W.  AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
PUERTO RICO ALONG 22N65W 15N65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO ALONG 92W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED
TO THE WAVE IS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N20W 8N30W 13N40W 13N50W
9N60W. A CLUSTER OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 13W-19W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 18W-32W...
AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 30N.  BROAD 10-15 KT SELY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 80W-90W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
25N100W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 95W-105W.
ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N91W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER.  A SMALL
UPPER HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.  LASTLY... AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 87W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.  ELY SURFACE WINDS OF
10-20 KT PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ELY FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN
80W-90W.  AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
21N66W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N60W.  ANOTHER 1022
MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N26W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-75W.  MUCH OF THIS REGION IS ALSO COVERED
BY A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF NOTE...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W.  A
TROUGH IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 50W WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N.

$$
FORMOSA




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