[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 11N50W 5N52W
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N50W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
5N47W 11N47W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SHIFTED AND NOW COVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO STILL IS POSSIBLE. ALL
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOW ARE OVER THE WATERS TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALSO
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THROUGH GUATEMALA TO EL SALVADOR. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD
AND NOW ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 18N16W 13N30W 11N47W 9N52W 8N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IS
IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 94W AND THE MEXICO
COAST. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. REMNANT WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NO
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS CENTER. A 25N74W ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER
REACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N
WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A FLORIDA
PANHANDLE-TO-SOUTH CAROLINA RIDGE REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GOES FROM THIS HIGH CENTER
TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NICARAGUA...BRINGING ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO COASTAL AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
37N50W TO 27N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
EXISTS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN THE AFRICA
COAST AND 60W. NO EASILY-WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTERS ARE APPARENT.
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
33N29W TO 27N46W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N74W TO
A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA/
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/ THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND FLORIDA.

$$
MT


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