[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE AT 10N. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ONLY APPEAR
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W. 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 15N
TO 18N INCLUDING REACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS RIGHT NOW...BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM
ST.KITTS AND NEVIS TO ANGUILLA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM SIX HOURS NOW IS NOT
APPARENT.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE HAS
REACHED EASTERN PUERTO RICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 17N18W 13N28W 10N47W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W...
AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS
APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BORDER. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER ALREADY REACHES INLAND
AT LEAST 200 NM WEST OF THE CENTER. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 21N
TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. ANY EARLIER PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO HAVE DRIED UP ALREADY. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER IS WITHIN
180 NM TO THE SOUTH AND WITHIN 120 NM ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W
ALREADY HAS ENDED. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS AROUND A NOT-WELL-
DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NO PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND THIS CENTER. A 25N74W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS ABOUT
90 NM NORTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER REACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM A FLORIDA PANHANDLE-TO-SOUTH CAROLINA RIDGE REACHES THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM TAMPA
TO CEDAR KEY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
77W AND 82W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GOES FROM THIS HIGH CENTER
TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AROUND PUERTO RICO...COVERING
PUERTO RICO MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED AND RANDOMLY-LOCATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
IS SPREAD OUT ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
37N50W TO 27N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
EXISTS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN THE AFRICA
COAST AND 60W. NO EASILY-WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTERS ARE APPARENT.
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
33N30W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N60W TO A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTER IN THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA.

$$
MT


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