[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 292332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 8N47W.  ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W.  THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 63W-78W.  THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO THAT AREA AND A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 20 KT.  CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 80W-92W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 7N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 22W-25W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 55W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N85W.  BROAD 10-15 KT
SELY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 81W-87W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 90W-93W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 95W-99W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 93W-105W.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 27N89W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN
83W-92W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  10-20KT
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N87W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 83W-92W.
ANOTHER SMALL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N67W. A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W.  ANOTHER 1020
MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N30W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-75W.  MUCH OF THIS REGION IS ALSO COVERED
BY A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF NOTE...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W.  A
TROUGH IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 50W WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N.

$$
FORMOSA




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