[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CURVATURE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT
PROGRESSES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  PRESENTLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
31W-37W...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING QUICKLY
WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A DEFINITE INVERTED V SHAPE AND
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 60W-67W.  THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 14N81W.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-22N
BETWEEN 75W-85W.  GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND SEEMS TO MOVE A HEAVILY
SHEARED AND THUS WEAKER NORTHERN PORTION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
EXTENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 8N40W 7N50W 7N62W.
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ ARE PRIMARILY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.  BROAD
10-15 KT SELY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 88W-94W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
85W-90W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-28N
BETWEEN 87W-100W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND THE
CONVECTION OVER LOUISIANA TO MOVE E TO N FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 67W-72W.  10-20KT TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
14N81W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 6N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.
ANOTHER SMALL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W.  A
GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N56W.  ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N26W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-75W.  MUCH OF THIS
REGION IS ALSO COVERED BY A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST E OF
75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W.  A HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 20N50W.  UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 50W
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 20N.

$$
FORMOSA


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