[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED TO 29W SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 9N33W. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 32W. THIS WAVE HAD BEEN MISPLACED ACCIDENTALLY AT 20W/21W
ON THE 27/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. ITS CURRENT POSITION
AGREES MUCH MORE WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.

AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N67W 15N69W
INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 9N IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS BETWEEN 69W AND
75W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN HAITI
NOW. THIS PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN TAKING PLACE AT 27/1815 UTC
FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THAT HAS WEAKENED BY NOW...WITH ONLY THE
HAITI SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 9N27W 10N31W 10N40W 11N49W 10N51W 10N65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W...FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR THE TAMPA/
ST.PETERSBURG AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 25N TO 29N THREE HOURS AGO
HAVE BEEN LOSING THEIR FORCE AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THESE CLOUD AREAS HAVE BEEN WARMING. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
STILL IS POSSIBLE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS JUST NORTH OF AUSTIN. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS TEXAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW CENTER...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. ANOTHER
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER OF 24 HOURS AGO FINALLY
HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT
WATERS TO 15N...AND IN HAITI NOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG AREA OF
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N75W TO 27N80W. CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS LINE AS THE
CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 35N56W TO A SECOND
LOW CENTER NEAR 26N72W TO 23N77W. THIS 26N72W IS NOW MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 67W/69W TROPICAL WAVE.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER
NEAR 33N78W TO A SECOND ONE NEAR 30N80W. A SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC 32N76W-TO-FLORIDA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN THE AREA FROM 16N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THIS DRY AIR IS NEAR
21N50W. A RIDGE IS ALONG 10N49W 18N48W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 33N30W.

$$
MT


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