[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS NOW CENTERED BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO.  THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
STILL EXISTS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
AREA FROM 25N/29N BETWEEN 92W/97W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ALONG
38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 7N/12N IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20
KT. THIS WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A TROF BUT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS
FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOW A
LARGE/BROAD AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH THIS WAVE IS MINIMAL.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 24N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SHAPE.
SCATTERED WEAK/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
EVIDENT BETWEEN 54W AND 62W FROM 14N TO 20N. THIS WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AS THE WAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...THOUGH THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE INTERACTING WITH THE
ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE...TRIGGERING NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST NORTH OF THIS WAVE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W.
AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF CUBA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 10N27W 12N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 11N61W TO PANAMA NEAR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
PANAMA. SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 52W THROUGH 18W. A CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AXIS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO...ALONG
WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF TO ITS NW
EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SW GULF UNDER UPPER RIDGING. MOISTURE
AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STREAM ANTICYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE RIDGE FROM 21 TO 24N BETWEEN 81 AND 89W. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH STRONGER
SE FLOW AND WIND WAVES IN THE WESTERN GULF...AS THE HIGH
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW TO ITS WEST.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ITS CENTER NEAR
17N81W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH/RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALONG
WITH ITS INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY...IS
GENERATING PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HAITI
THROUGH 84W FROM 17 TO 22N. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL/EAST CARIBBEAN FROM 11 TO 17N AND BETWEEN
65 TO 83W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN 18 AND 54W FROM 10 TO 40N. LOTS OF FAIR...RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER DOMINATES THIS REGION AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS
MOVING N OUT OF THE TAFB AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY NEAR 30N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FAR SW
ATLANTIC...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THE SURFACE PATTERN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1029MB HIGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ITS
CENTER NEAR 36N44W. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THIS HIGH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
FOUND IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THESE
WINDS ALONG THE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD WEST
THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A DENSE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA THROUGH 55W...WITH A LITTLE LESS
CONCENTRATION NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 37/38W.


$$
WILLIS



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