[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 26N99W MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KT.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.  THE
SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IF ANOTHER CENTER EMERGES OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE IS
IN AN AREA OF THICK AFRICAN DUST THAT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 22N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. THIS
WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN
DUST. IT REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
55W-62W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
71W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.  TROPICAL
WAVE SHOWS VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS HEAVY HOWEVER ALONG THE ITCZ THAT RUNS ALONG 9N
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 13N26W 8N35W 8N45W 13N53W 9N62W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 11W-22W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 31W-36W...AND FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N.  THE
GULF OF MEXICO THUS HAS 10-15 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 88W-98W MOVING NE.  AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER N
FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W.  A
COL IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N87W.  MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W DUE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...AND THE NE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 86W.  EXPECT... SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER W COLOMBIA FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 75W-78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W
CUBA FROM21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-86W.  OF INTEREST...STRONG
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR
20N79W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
13N70W.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
13N-18N.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N54W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N BETWEEN 25W-70W.  UW-CIMSS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT DEPICTS AFRICAN DUST E OF 52W
TO AFRICA FROM 10N-30N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 70W. TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS  ARE FURTHER E NEAR 28N63W AND 28N53W. ONE MORE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N32N.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 25W.

$$
FORMOSA




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