[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251825 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS.  THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN
TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES EAST OF THIS WAVE NEAR THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 7N/11N AND 20W/15W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 26N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.
THIS WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST. IT REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W
AND 51W. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY
A DENSE REGION OF AFRICAN DUST. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N13W 10N46W 14N55W 8N69W AND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS LIES OFF THE COAST
OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 8N/12N AND 15W/19W. PATCHES OF MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS BETWEEN 4N-8N AND 24W-43W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG LOCATED BETWEEN COASTAL VENEZUELA AND
14N55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA AND
WEST INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO WHICH IS JUST SOUTH OF
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING SW FROM THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE US. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A
1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SW OF BROWNSVILLE TX
CONTINUES TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN 89W/97W AND 22N/29N.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS/LOW SEAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER 15-20 KT S/SE
FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS HIGH INTERACTS WITH
THE LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SIMILAR SFC CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RATHER BENIGN TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 71W/72W WITH ANOTHER
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BROAD UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N77W
WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR/SAHARAN DUST. THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT MOVED NORTH OF BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEST/CENTRAL
ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH SFC TRADE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIB BUT GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTH FROM 37N45W MEETS AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 27N53W. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC
EXTENDING WEST FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 35N49W. MODERATE
TRADE FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF THIS HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 50W. THIS
HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48HRS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING WEST WITH THE STRONGER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH/TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTION. AFRICAN DUST
AND MINIMAL CONVECTION LIE EAST OF THIS WAVE THROUGH THE COAST
OF AFRICA.



$$
WILLIS


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