[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN THE
GENERATION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE  NW
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N92W TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE COAST IN WHICH CASE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD DEVELOP. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

THE 1010 MB LOW IS NOW LONGER DISCERNIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SENEGAL...HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED OFF THE COAST
ALONG 19W/20W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 26N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A EQUALLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF THINNING AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
69W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 6N32W 13N51W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 8N-11N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WITHIN 160 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 34W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER SW MEXICO. THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE.
AN UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE SE US COAST IN THE W ATLC WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 25N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 78W. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N78W WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA IS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ
AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
CLEAR DUE TO DRY AIR AND THE PRESENCE OF DIMINISHING AFRICAN
DUST. STRONG TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE SE US NEAR 30N79W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DIPPING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N FROM 76W-80W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N51W COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN
45W-60W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N57W
COVERING THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 40W TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 24N15W SW TO 20N40W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. A STRONG SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE THE E ATLC S OF 27N FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 48W...THUS LIMITING CLOUDS
OVER THAT AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS IN THE
ATLC.

$$
WALLACE






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