[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250459
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MUCH OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF
92W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TO THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS
LESS WELL-DEFINED AS EARLIER WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A EQUALLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N28W 13N45W 8N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 4N33W-7N40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 88W ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER SW MEXICO. THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE.
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE SE US COAST IN THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TAMPA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER W
CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE S GULF FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 83W-87W AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER S FLORIDA
HAVE MOVED INTO THE E GULF FROM 25N27N BETWEEN THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA W TO 83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC DIPS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 76W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
COVERING THE AREA E OF 76W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS
THE W GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 10N FROM 76W-80W IS DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR DUE TO DRY AIR AND THE PRESENCE OF
AFRICAN DUST. STRONG TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SE US NEAR 30N77W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA S OF DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND DIPPING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THIS UPPER LOW IS INDUCING A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE ALONG 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N62W. A SECOND
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W COVERING THE AREA
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 44W-58W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N54W COVERING THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 42W TO
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 28N10W SW 25N28W TO
22N36W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N
OF THE REGION. A STRONG SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE THE E
ATLC S OF 30N E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE4 NEAR 46W/47W...THUS
LIMITING CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS IN THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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