[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE PRESENTLY FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 91W-98W.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT LOCATION.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 13W-19W.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PRONOUNCED INVERTED V PATTERN
IS ALONG 45W S OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS
ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THIS WAVE AND LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-24N
BETWEEN 42W-51W. THIS CENTRAL ATLC WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS UNDER A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING IT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE.  WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ALSO WEAK WITH ONLY A HINT OF WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF 20N76W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N25W 13N45W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  WILDLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
11W-14W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO E TEXAS
ALONG 33N80W 34N85W 32N91W 32N98W.  THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15
KT SLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE FRONT DUE TO RIDGING.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE W GULF FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 91W-98W.  AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER N
FLORIDA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  WLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W.  A COL IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
24N87W.  SLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W DUE
TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 87W.  EXPECT...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA....AND HONDURAS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN
82W-87W.  OF INTEREST...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N.  GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 87W.  A COL AREA IS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.  NELY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-85W.  ANOTHER COL IS S OF HISPANIOLA.  A
THIRD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 14N65W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER NE FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  A DOMINATE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N54W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N
BETWEEN 25W-70W.  UW-CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT
DEPICTS AFRICAN DUST E OF 42W TO AFRICA FROM 10N-30N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N73W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W-85W.  A TROUGH IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN
57W-65W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
15N45W.  A COL IS NEAR 20N35W.  ANOTHER LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
15N45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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