[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 24N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS
WAVE AND LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED WITH A LOW LEVEL ROTATION
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURROUNDING
SHIPS/BUOYS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING ON THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC LOW AND AT THE BASE OF THE WAVE
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 10N. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE IS RATHER WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE.  WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 21N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO RATHER WEAK WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
ONLY A HINT OF SOME EVIDENCE OF A WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W S OF 21N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND
THE SW GULF. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
WAVE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 10N30W 14N39W 10N49W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS E OF 16W AND W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LIES ABOVE THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE N OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 29N78W SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W.
ANOTHER ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W AND A
BROAD RIDGE COVERS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MOST CONVECTIVE WEATHER EXISTS IN THE W GULF AND OVER S MEXICO W
OF 89W S OF 26N ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG 95W FROM 21N-26N. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT FIRED UP OVERNIGHT IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ARE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING IS BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM A STRONG WEST/CENTRAL ATLC HIGH. A STATIONARY
FRONT LIES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COMPUTER MODELS KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE W GULF TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT SHOW A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES EXIST IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE RATHER BENIGN FEATURES. FOR MORE
DETAILS SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WEST OF 82W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. SIMILAR PATCHES OF
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
THE BAHAMAS GENERATED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER
HIGH E OF N FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO NEAR 14N81W. DRY/STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES
THE TROUGH. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
DRAWING BROKEN MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO 16N
BETWEEN 62W-75W.  MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A LARGE BUILDING AMPLIFIED ATLC RIDGE
AND TROUGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE W OF 61W MOSTLY N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME. A PATCH OF MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THE WEST
ATLC RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 40W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM W AFRICA OUT TO 30W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REGION
BETWEEN THE RIDGES...30W-40W...N OF 25N. ESSENTIALLY DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 61W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES
IS THE THEME WITH A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY SCATTERED PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS LIES UNDER THE RIDGE EAST OF 61W. ACCORDING TO THE 09
UTC SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS...SAHARAN DUST IS
DENSE OUT TO 40W WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF IT SPREADING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC TO ABOUT 70W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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