[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. THIS WAVE AND
LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURROUNDING SHIPS/BUOYS.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING ON THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD LOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE.  WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 21N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO RATHER WEAK WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
ONLY A HINT OF SOME EVIDENCE OF A WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W S OF 21N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND
THE SW GULF. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
WAVE MOVES SLOWLY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 12N30W 15N39W 10N49W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 39W-46W AND 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LIES ABOVE THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE N OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 29N78W WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W. ANOTHER ELONGATED UPPER
LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERS S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST CONVECTIVE WEATHER EXISTS IN
THE SW GULF AND OVER S MEXICO ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
99W...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN
90W-92W AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
IS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM A STRONG WEST/CENTRAL ATLC HIGH. A
STATIONARY FRONT LIES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COMPUTER MODELS KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE GULF ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE W GULF...BUT
SHOW A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES EXIST IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE RATHER BENIGN FEATURES. FOR MORE
DETAILS SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WEST OF 82W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SIMILAR PATCHES OF CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO NEAR 14N82W. DRY/STABLE AIR ACCOMPANIES
THE TROUGH. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO 16N
BETWEEN 62W-75W.  MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A LARGE BUILDING AMPLIFIED ATLC RIDGE
AND TROUGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE W OF 65W MOSTLY N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME. A PATCH OF MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE WEST
ATLC RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 50W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM W AFRICA OUT TO 40W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REGION
BETWEEN THE RIDGES...30W-40W...N OF 25N. ESSENTIALLY DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 65W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES
IS THE THEME WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N55W AND A 1025
MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY SCATTERED
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LIES UNDER THE RIDGE EAST
OF 65W. ACCORDING TO THE 03 UTC SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS FROM
UW-CIMSS...SAHARAN DUST IS DENSE OUT TO 40W WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF IT SPREADING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC TO ABOUT
65W-70W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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