[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N39W.  BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE
AFRICAN DUST.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT.
WAVE IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE.  WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST.  NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION
ARE NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AND
OVER LAKE MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N20W 11N35W 7N58W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS WEST OF 30W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND ALONG 31N FROM ALABAMA TO E TEXAS.  THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE FRONT DUE
TO RIDGING.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOTS THE ENTIRE GULF.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  WLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N AND W OF 85W.  ELSEWHERE...SLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL
SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 87W-93W.
OF INTEREST...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S
OF 18N.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  A COL AREA
IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  SELY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER
CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-83W.  ANOTHER COL IS S OF HISPANIOLA.
A THIRD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 12N65W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER VENEZUELA AND
THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 60W-74W.  EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER NE FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N53W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N
BETWEEN 25W-70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N73W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-85W.  A TROUGH IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 57W-65W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N45W.  A COL IS NEAR 20N35W.
ANOTHER LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 15N45W.

$$
FORMOSA





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