[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 22N WITH A 1013
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE
OBSERVED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA
OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 14N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT.
WAVE IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN
DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 9N25W 10N36W 10N40W 6N55W AND
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 26N88W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE
IN TEXAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS LIES JUST SOUTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 27N85W 26N90W 24N95W. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA INTO
THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-92W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE COVERS
S MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AN UPPER HIGH
IS LOCATED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA COVERING THE SUNSHINE
STATE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF AND CENTRAL AMERICA
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO OVER
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ AXIS OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA . UNDER AN ELY WIND FLOW...TYPICAL STREAMERS OR CLOUD
LINES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA DOMINATING THE
W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EWD S OF 32N TO 27N68W.
EAST OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 28N62W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 23N FROM 30W-50W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM WEST AFRICA ACROSS
THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR 33N53W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHERE
THERE IS LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
31N72W TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA...AFFECTING ALSO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
77W-79W. ACCORDING TO THE 23/1500 UTC SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM
UW-CIMSS...A LARGE AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...GENERATING HAZY CONDITIONS AND LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

$$
GR




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