[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 20N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE AS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN
DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 90W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N19W 11N32W 8N47W 6N54W AND
ACROSS PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 54W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM 75W-84W TO INLAND OVER  COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-20W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 24W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS/NE MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST PRECEDING
THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW RESIDING OVER THE NE US.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE
US...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE GULF N OF 28N E OF LOUISIANA.
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS COVERING THE S GULF S OF 24N W OF 86W
ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THAT
BASIN. CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA COVERING THE AREA E OF 83W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N87W TO 22N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N21N BETWEEN
73W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
OVER PANAMA. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S
OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S OF 32N INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-80W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 74W TO OVER FLORIDA. UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
28N63W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N64W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N
FROM 30W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF
AFRICA NEAR 25N14W ALONG 24N28W TO NEAR 17N40W. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA E OF 70W LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN
DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

$$
WALLACE



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