[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 21N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N37.5W AND NO OTHER ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HAS BECOME A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AS
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W OVER MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
BEYOND 17N91W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N15W 14N28W 5N52W AND ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
10N FROM 75W-82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. CLUSTERS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 36W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS/NE MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER. A
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST PRECEDING
THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW RESIDING OVER THE NE US.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE
US...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE GULF N OF 28N E OF LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE IS COVERING THE S GULF S OF 24N W OF 87W ANCHORED OVER THE
E PACIFIC NEAR A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THAT BASIN. CONVECTION IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN
UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA COVERING THE
AREAS OF 28N E OF 83W.  RIDGE IN THE FAR W ATLC AND FROM OVER
CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS
GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 72W-80W. CONVECTION IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
S OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
26N80W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S OF 30N INTO THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-33N W OF 73W TO OVER THE SE
US. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 29N63W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM
30-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA
NEAR 25N14W ALONG 24N28W TO NEAR 17N45W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA E OF 70W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA REACHING THE EASTERN
MOST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MOSTLY S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net