[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...
THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK...NARROW LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AS WELL AS BEING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
21N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 10N26W 4N43W 5N56W AND JUST S
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-20W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
22W-31W AND WITHIN 175 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTEND W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. BROAD UPPER
HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER EXTENDS S TO THE N
GULF COAST AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF S OF 24N
W OF 85W ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE FAR
W ATLC AND FROM OVER CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N E
OF 85W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 85W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W INTO THE W ATLC. AN INDUCED UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 14N77W. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. STRONG
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 23N81W INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 27N71W TO AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
34N62W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N71W
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-30N W
OF 70W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N FROM 66W-72W.
A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N42W WITH FLOW
WITHIN 200 NM. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR 20N16W ALONG 17N38W TO
16N46W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE ATLC E
OF 70W IS SUPPORTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS
SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 26N E OF 57W.

$$
WALLACE


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