[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 43.1N 67.4W AT 21/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 215 MILES WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING NE AT 23
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LAST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER AS THE CYCLONE ACQUIRES EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
BERYL LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE CENTER FROM 42N-46N BETWEEN 63W-66W
WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS INLAND OVER NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL SHOULD
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ADJUSTED ALONG 31W/32W S OF 18N BASED ON SATELLITE
ANALYSIS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASSAGE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN 33/35W AND 5/8N. SHIP OBS
THIS MORNING DEPICTED 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGAIN NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION DUE TO
THE DENSE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST MOVING W WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH INVERTED V PATTERN IS
OBSERVED ON AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 86W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
MOVING WEST THROUGH THE YUCATAN/BELIZE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EVIDENT IN THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL REGION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 7N30W 5N35W 4N45W 3N51W. MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS THE CLUSTER MOVING WEST OF AFRICA WITH
AFTERNOON IR ANALYSIS DEPICTING WIDESPREAD MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 10/14N AND 18/23W. POCKETS OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXIST WEST OF THIS AREA
THROUGH 40W WITH THE ONLY STRONG CONVECTION NOTED AROUND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW NEAR 7N/32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER TROF JUST WEST
OF SW FLORIDA IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOYS/QUIKSCAT
INDICATING SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WITH TROF AXIS AND CYCLONIC
TURNING OF WINDS EVIDENT. HAVE ANALYZED TROF ACCESS FROM 27N83W
TO 24N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS TROF IS
LOCATED IN THE SW GULF BETWEEN 24/26N AND 84/81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FAR SW ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS...IN CONNECTION WITH THE TROF IF
THE SW GULF AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE AREA EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
25N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WEST THROUGH S
MEXICO. ASIDE FROM THE WEAK SFC TROF IN THE SW GULF RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST ON THE SW SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROF IN THE SW GULF TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. REST OF CARIBBEAN IS
MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTH
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF THE COLOMBIA COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AREA BETWEEN 45W-65W REMAINS COVERED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LOWS
AND HIGHS BUT ARE BENIGN AND DRY FEATURES NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH INLAND OVER AFRICA WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC COMBINED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME
AREA IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 40W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LEADING EDGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST HAS
PROGRESSED TO NEAR 50W.

$$
MW/GR



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