[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 210316
HLSOKX
ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-210700-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1116 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT AND FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR....

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD STILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT
TO EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN. THIS STATEMENT
ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT
JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK
COUNTY NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE BOATING
COMMUNITY. MARINERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

SWELLS BEING GENERATED BY BERYL HAVE ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 10 TO 12
FEET SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER...AS BERYL MOVES EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGES OF AROUND 1 FOOT ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THIS PLUS WAVE ACTION HAS CAUSED SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT LONGER.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BERYL IS MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR AREA...ABOUT 65 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT...AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH BERYL IS STILL
PACKING WINDS OF 50 MPH...THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED NEAR THE CENTER.
THE HIGHEST WINDS IN OUR AREA SHOULD ONLY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH
AND THIS MOST LIKELY WILL BE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO A RAIN BAND SWIRLING
IN FROM THE OCEAN.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
A RAIN BAND FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY STILL GENERATE SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
ROUGH SEAS FROM BERYL ARE PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES WITH BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH
EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE FOLLOWING IS THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR A
SELECTED LOCATION IN OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

MONTAUK POINT...6 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER.

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND BERYL MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY AROUND 230 AM EDT.

$$




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