[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 202031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB
AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 56 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS...THESE WINDS MOST LIKELY
ARE NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. BERYL'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AND IS BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF CYCLONES MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BERYL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24
HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA.

BERYL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
VERY NEAR  NANTUCKET AND EASTERN CAPE COD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERN OF CAPE COD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 39.6N  72.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 41.0N  70.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 46.0N  61.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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