[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 201916 CCA
HLSBOX
ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210100-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND.  THE BUOY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND REPORTED WIND GUSTS
TO 33 KNOTS AT 2 PM.  IN ADDITION...SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 11 FT AT
THE BUOY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND 10 FT AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET.

THE OUTERMOST RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE
MOVED ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.  SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...
NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.  THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH
COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT
ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS
TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. BOAT
OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT
MOORINGS ARE SECURE.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
/KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 AM
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 9 AND 11
PM...DIMINISHING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT AND WESTERLY.  THIS
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED
TIDES.

AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918
PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT
826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH
TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS
EXPECTED.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH
COAST.  AT 2 PM...HIGHER SWELLS UP TO 10 FT...AND BUILDING...WERE
REPORTED FROM BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND.

THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST.
BUILDING SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG MANY
SOUTH COAST BEACHES.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH
AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.  ISOLATED 3
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.  FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER
FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES.

ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE
ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BOSTON MA     25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
BOSTON MA      5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

HYANNIS MA    59 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA    13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

NANTUCKET MA  72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA  19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

PROVIDENCE RI 37 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
PROVIDENCE RI  7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 6 PM EDT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
PRODUCTS.

$$

KJC





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