[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 39.1N 72.6W AT 20/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 1125 MILES SSE OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 195 MILES SW
OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING NNE AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER
WATER AND A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 6 HORUS WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTER RAIN BANDS ALONG THE COAST
FROM NEW JERSEY TO MASSACHUSETTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 14N18W
DRIFTING W.  A RECENT QUIK-SCAT PASS SHOWED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION.  PRESENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS...THAT ARE BEING SUPPRESSED BY A PLUME
OF THICK AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  AFRICA DUST IS E OF THIS WAVE TO THE
AFRICAN COAST...FROM 5N-25N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT.  WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 81W/82W S OF 21N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 79W-83W.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N18W 7N25W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W
10N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 12W-20W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE LIGHT
AT 5-10 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
79W-82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 94W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W.
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.  ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR
26N97W.  CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.  FURTHER S...RIDGING WITH SW FLOW IS OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 23N WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT MORE AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE S GULF S OF
24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS...SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH WIND VELOCITIES OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 65W-80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGING IS WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  A TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 85W.  EXPECT CONTINUED
LIGHT CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEW
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER E ALONG 29N67W 22N72W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
22N-32N BETWEEN 62W-66W.  A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N53W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  T.S. BERYL
IS GOING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF
THE CENTER.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR
28N48W.  A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS FROM 5N-30N E OF
55W.

$$
FORMOSA




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