[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 201022
HLSBOX
ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-201700-

TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
622 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS
TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...


...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS MOVED FARTHER
WEST OVERNIGHT...AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 20 MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...
NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS
ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.


...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO
PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND
IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.

FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
/KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.


...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT APPROXIMATELY
9
PM THIS EVENING.


...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...
STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED
TIDES.

AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM
TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY
SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT
826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF
THE STORM.  THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT
HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES.


...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED IN
THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.


...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH
AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...
THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED
TO
BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
INCREASES.

ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE
ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.


...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 5 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BOSTON MA     29 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
BOSTON MA      5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

HYANNIS MA    55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA    15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA     2 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER

NANTUCKET MA  64 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA  19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA   4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER

PROVIDENCE RI 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
PROVIDENCE RI  9 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 1 PM EDT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
PRODUCTS.

$$

BELK/NOCERA




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